Could Trump’s tariffs reshape the global critical minerals landscape?

China and Canada retain leverage: A huge proportion of US nickel, aluminium, steel and copper – and refining capacity – comes from China and Canada. While tariffs would undoubtedly hurt China and Canada initially, the accelerating global demand for critical minerals is such that each would surely find alternative markets for their products. The US, meanwhile, would need to plug the supply gaps – and given its limited domestic mining and refining capabilities, this would likely mean looking to other mining nations in the short to medium term.

China’s swift retaliation brings compliance to the fore: Along with countering Trump’s announcement with tariffs of their own, China has asserted its dominance by unveiling several other measures since December, including bans or restrictions on the export of both minerals and key battery technologies. Mining companies must now be proactive complying with the new regulations and accounting for national security concerns.

Shifting investor appetite: The US markets may see increased investment in domestic mining and refining capabilities, as well as strategic investments in alternative supply chains (i.e. recycling or technology for extraction). On the other hand, tariffs send a poor message to those considering investing in or developing a critical minerals project in the US.

Supply chain impacts: Tariffs would likely increase the costs of mining and manufacturing processes in the US. Companies with integrated supply chains across both China and the US will likely face higher costs or potential supply shortages of critical minerals, resulting in potential delays to projects (i.e. clean energy) or production of goods (i.e. electric vehicles). Tariffs could also have flow on effects to mining-adjacent sectors like logistics and shipping.  

Australia is not immune: The Australian mining industry is unlikely to face similar tariffs, given the limited overlap between the raw materials sourced from the US and Australia. However, Australian mining entities with Chinese or American subsidiaries or assets will need to consider the implications of these tariffs on their operations. The US is a common area of future investment focus for Australian mining companies and a tariff war with Canada will be a matter of concern.