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In the final instalment of our three-part series, HSF has analysed pre-bid stakes acquired by bidders in public companies between calendar years 2022 to 2024. The data reveals that pre-bid stakes are a strong indicator of bidder success. However, they are not impenetrable, with some forms of pre-bid stake more susceptible to rival bids than others. The previous instalments of this series can be found here on NBIOs generally and private equity NBIOs.
Our review of pre-bid stakes in non-binding indicative offers (NBIOs) during 2022 to 2024 above $250m in deal value reveals the following:
A pre-bid stake that gives a bidder a relevant interest above (or an association with a person having above) 5% of the voting shares requires disclosure to the market in a substantial holder notice. Voting intention statements may not give rise to a relevant interest or an association, but are usually announced to the market to show support for the bid.
The 20% rule caps a pre-bid relevant interest at this level, and the Takeovers Panel considers long derivative interests above this level as likely unacceptable.
Foreign Government investors may be capped at acquiring an interest in 10% or more without FIRB approval, though it is possible to stage the acquisition (for example in a call option), with the second tranche at or above 10% subject to receipt of FIRB’s approval.
A bidder can take a pre-bid stake, before or as part of making an approach, for various reasons. These include (though the extent to which these are available depends on the form of the pre-bid):
A bidder who takes a pre-bid stake before engaging with the target can be perceived as behaving in a more hostile fashion, being considered as putting pressure on the Board to engage. However, the equal purposes of testing shareholder support at the price levels and increasing deal certainty (i.e. protecting from rival bids) are legitimate reasons for taking a stake.
Pre-bid stakes can take a variety of forms with varying pros and cons (our study covers all of these forms). These are described below and can be mix-and-matched with one another.
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Form of pre-bid |
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Key cons |
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Direct holding: acquisition of shares on market or from one or more specific shareholders (including an “overnight raid” targeting select institutional investors). |
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Derivatives: commonly a total return swap with an investment bank, delivering returns akin to owning the shares, with the swap writer usually hedging their position by buying underlying shares. |
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Call option: a right to acquire shares at a pre-agreed price mechanism (that may change depending on circumstances) that may be exercisable on certain occurrences (e.g. a rival bid being made). |
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Voting / acceptance agreement: agreement to vote in favour of scheme and / or accept takeover bid, usually accompanied by a restriction on disposal. |
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Voting / acceptance intention statement: public statement by substantial shareholder to vote in favour / accept bid. Enforceable under ASIC’s ‘Truth in Takeovers’ policy. |
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We have analysed pre-bid stakes of more than 5% of a potential target’s voting shares acquired by bidders who made a NBIO during 2022 to 2024. The charts below summarise our analysis of the data and we dissect the findings further below.
Bidders had a pre-bid stake in 61% of NBIOs.
In 83% of cases where the bidder had a pre-bid stake, the bidder was successful in securing control of the target.
However, targets should not interpret this as meaning that control will necessarily pass at the price of the first approach. In 41% of cases where a bidder with a pre-bid stake was successful, the bidder unilaterally increased their price. While on the one hand this is consistent with conventional wisdom that the first price is rarely the bidder’s final price, on the other hand it indicates that a pre-bid alone is rarely enough to strong arm the target Board into acceptance.
In a further 14% of cases where the bidder with a pre-bid stake was successful, the bidder had to overcome a rival bid. In 12% of cases where a bidder took a pre-bid stake, the bidder was unsuccessful due to a rival bid. These statistics show that pre-bid stakes are not impenetrable. However, generally, a bidder that takes a pre-bid stake has high conviction and willing to take on and beat a rival bidder.
In short, yes. We divide pre-bid stakes into two forms, ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ pre-bids:
Hard pre-bid stakes, which were 70% of our sample, are more likely to result in the bidder acquiring control, only being unsuccessful 7% of the time. Soft pre-bid stakes, representing 30% of our sample, were much less likely to succeed, failing 30% of the time. In particular, a bidder with the benefit of a shareholder intention statement more often than not was unsuccessful. We conclude that these soft pre-bid stakes are useful for showing shareholder support for the price level, but are relatively weak deal protection mechanisms.
We consider how these pre-bid arrangements have played out in specific scenarios.
These success rates for and interesting examples of pre-bid stakes provide valuable real data for bidders and targets when assessing their next move in a potential NBIO situation. If you have any queries regarding the data or specific situations, please do not hesitate to contact us.
The contents of this publication are for reference purposes only and may not be current as at the date of accessing this publication. They do not constitute legal advice and should not be relied upon as such. Specific legal advice about your specific circumstances should always be sought separately before taking any action based on this publication.
© Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer 2026
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