2026 Predictions

2026 predictions

IPOs

The calendar year started well for IPO sentiment. IPO market commentary and active IPO processes focussed on the first half of 2026 was suggesting greater activity and preparedness to undertake an IPO in 2026 rather than simply defaulting to a private market solution or a continuation of the status quo. The growing interest in IPOs was seen both from founders and also private capital owners of IPO candidates.

In recent weeks however, war in the Middle East and the resulting impact on oil prices, inflation and interest rates has created significant uncertainty in markets and from IPO candidates as to whether a process early in 2026 is the right approach. Our sense is that the majority of candidates are waiting to see how things develop before committing to a process in early 2026. This may result in activity again being focused on the second half. 

Beyond that and in particular where markets are volatile, we expect ASIC’s fast‑track IPO reforms to be a meaningful tailwind for IPOs in 2026.  The key benefit to this reform is shortening the period during which investors are “on risk” before securities can be traded on market, which is even more important when markets are volatile. 

Private capital 

Provided the current uncertainty dissipates, given we expect public markets to present attractive IPO opportunities in 2026, we anticipate that private and venture capital will be an active supplier of assets to public markets. However, private and venture capital will also remain the strongest alternative to public markets both through new acquisitions of assets that may otherwise come to public markets and through recycling of assets between themselves.

While private capital will continue to pursue private exits or sell to strategic acquirers, improving IPO conditions increase the likelihood that mature private capital held assets will again feed the public market pipeline. Again putting aside immediate market conditions, there is increasing interest in public markets from private capital as the improved ASIC review and fast timeframes more closely align with the deal cycle discipline which is characteristic of venture capital and private equity firms. The low volume IPO years of 2023 to 2025 have left a backlog of companies held beyond their intended cycle, creating pressure for private capital to seek liquidity. PE firms are also considering public market valuations in a new light, recognising the emerging trend that pricing outcomes are diverging between public and private markets depending on the asset and sector. We therefore expect an uptick in private capital seeking guidance on the value of their businesses and assets as the year progresses.

Secondary markets 

Though the total value of secondary capital raises was lower, the total volume of transactions increased in 2025 compared to previous years. The year was marked by several large transactions including Goodman Group’s $4 billion placement to accelerate its development and Xero’s $1.85 billion placement to fund its strategic acquisition of Melio. Raisings such as these signal the willingness of listed companies to return to the secondary markets to fund growth and M&A opportunities.

Secondary market activity will similarly remain exposed to shifts in global markets which may impact the timing and sizing of raisings. If the war in the Middle East resolves itself quickly, we may see the momentum from 2025 continuing. Conversely on the downside, if the war in the Middle East drags on, we may see increased interest rates and reduced consumer activity actually create increased demand for equity capital – both given the increasing cost of debt and the potential need for companies to bolster their balance sheets to weather broader market downturns.