Our annual Australian ECM review covers significant developments in the market, with several chapters providing useful information for our private equity clients. 

The highlights:

Large-scale IPOs Signal Future Activity

Whilst the number of IPOs was down vs 2023, capital raised on listing bounced back strongly in 2024, which was assisted by significant large-cap IPOs, such as DigiCo Infrastructure REIT and Guzman y Gomez (each with a market capitalisation exceeding $2 billion), as well as the $30 billion reverse takeover of Chemist Warehouse by Sigma Healthcare. These transactions provide excitement about a return of listings at scale in 2025, and signal a potential re-opening of the IPO window, including for PE sponsors looking to exit. Herbert Smith Freehills acted on the DigiCo, GYG and Chemist Warehouse transactions.

Case Studies, including a Prominent IPO Exit – Guzman y Gomez

Guzman y Gomez’s $2.2 billion IPO was one of the 2024 success stories, and marked the first PE sponsor exit via IPO since 2021. It demonstrates that innovative offer structuring and marketing can achieve excellent results on an IPO exit for PE vendors, particularly as GYG’s share price is now trading for well above the IPO price which presents opportunities for TDM Growth Partners to sell down block trade over the coming years. Herbert Smith Freehills acted for Morgan Stanley and Barrenjoey, the joint lead managers and underwriters of the GYG IPO.

Secondary Raisings Recap 

The market for secondary raises remained buoyant in 2024, with secondary raises increasing in activity by both number and value as compared to the previous year. As we predicted last year, there was a higher proportion of transactions undertaken for M&A purposes, which highlights the opportunity that PE firms have to vend their assets to corporate buyers.

ASIC Releases Discussion Paper

On 26 February 2025, ASIC released a discussion paper titled ‘Australia’s evolving capital markets: A discussion paper on the dynamics between public and private markets’, which addressed the shifting dynamics between public and private markets in Australia. ASIC stated that it was “concerned” with the declining trend of listed companies in Australia, although it was not prepared to make a call as to whether this decline was cyclical or structural. Notably, ASIC flagged that it may work with ASX to formulate regulatory responses, such as by refining the IPO pathway and listing rules. Conversely, ASIC has flagged the potential for increased regulation in the private capital space, in particular with regard to its access to information. ASIC is seeking feedback by late-April, and will provide details of its response in late-2025. Watch this space.

2025 Outlook 

While the market has not yet bounced back to its peak in 2021, with interest rates stabilising, inflation being brought under control and a stronger second half of listings in 2024, there is a level of optimism as we head into 2025. Tempering this confidence somewhat is the heightened geopolitical instability and global tensions following the US election and the potential for a global trade war. With the world adjusting to the new US President and Commonwealth Government election in the first half of the year, we again expect that the primary IPO window will be September to early December 2025.

Ready for Takeoff:

Australian ECM Review 2024

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