Italy – Volume, values and strategic shifts

Throughout the year, sponsors also pursued opportunistic investments in listed assets and corporate carve-outs, often participating in financing and co-investment structures. While not all of these deals were exclusively sponsor-driven, the influence of private equity in shaping the Italian M&A market remains significant.

Key sectors, mega-deals and emerging trends

Several sectors stood out in 2025, both in terms of deal volume and strategic importance. Banking and financial services were the primary drivers of value, with ongoing consolidation efforts reshaping the industry. The energy and utilities sector also saw notable activity, particularly in gas distribution and energy transition projects.

In this respect the largest deals in Italy include:

• With reference to banking and financial services, (i) the takeover of Mediobanca launched by Monte dei Paschi di Siena, (ii) the public exchange offer launched by BPER Banca on Banca Popolare di Sondrio and (iii) the public exchange offer launched by Banca IFIS for the acquisition of Illimity.
• With reference to the energy and utilities sector, (i) the acquisition of 99.94% of the share capital of 2i Rete Gas S.p.A., by Italgas for a consideration of €2.1 billion, (ii) the increase in Energy Infrastructure Partners' stake in Plenitude through a capital increase of approximately €209 million for 2.4% of the company's share capital, (iii) the sale by A2A and its subsidiaries to Ascopiave of 100% of the NewCo AP Reti Gas North S.r.l., to which 490,000 gas distribution PDRs were transferred in the provinces of Brescia, Bergamo, Cremona, Lodi and Pavia, for a total value of €430 million.

The consumer (in particular luxury brands) and industrials sectors continue to be very active attracting interest from both domestic and international buyers, despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Italian companies with strong brand recognition and niche industrial expertise remain highly sought after, and there is a growing trend towards supply-chain nearshoring and portfolio optimisation as firms adapt to new trade realities.

Across all sectors, dealmakers are emphasising transactions with clear value-creation potential, favouring structures that include earn-outs and material adverse change (MAC) protections. The focus has shifted towards domestic and sectoral consolidations, with mid-market platforms more active than transformational cross-border mergers.

Macro headwinds: Tariffs and geopolitics

The introduction of new US–EU tariffs has emerged as a significant headwind for Italian exporters and dealmakers. These measures have increased price uncertainty, heightened sensitivity to foreign exchange fluctuations, and raised the risk profile of cross-border transactions. Analysts estimate that the impact could amount to several billion euros in potential losses for export-oriented sectors, reinforcing the shift towards domestic and intra-EU strategies.

Despite these challenges, Europe’s relative rebound in deal sentiment — and Italy’s strong base of family-owned businesses and banking assets — has helped cushion the blow. The data clearly shows fewer cross-border deals but steady domestic volumes and values, underscoring the resilience of the Italian market.

Outlook for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook for Italian M&A remains cautiously optimistic. Assuming interest rates remain stable and no further tariff escalations occur, the market is expected to continue its focus on domestic consolidation, particularly in financial services and regulated energy sectors. Selective cross-border activity may resume once valuation gaps and tariff-related risks are better understood and priced into deals.

Private equity sponsors are likely to concentrate on platform add-ons, corporate carve-outs, and take-private transactions involving under-researched mid-cap companies. The emphasis will remain on transactions that offer strategic clarity and manageable risk, rather than speculative or opportunistic plays.

For investors, Italy remains a market of strategic importance, offering a unique blend of tradition, innovation, and opportunity.